[roxburylib]

I was thinking about how ridiculous first issue back prices are for modern comics considering that first issues now sell two or more times copies than subsequent issues. Second or later issues are far more rare than first issues. Before the advent of comic book shops and direct sales, first issues were rarer. It got me wondering how much more rare.

I'm going to speculate that only about 1% of the comics sold in the early 60s still exist. Using 1960 posted postal sales figures for Marvel's Tales of Suspense and Tales to Astonish, I'm going to say that Fantastic Four #1 sold about 150,000 copies. Heritage Auctions reports that about 1500 copies are known to have been condition graded for sales and auctions. There could be copies in collections that haven't been graded, but the number likely isn't very big for a comic that's been sold at auction for $300,000. Certainly, there's uncertainty in the numbers I've used. I'm not sure what else to use as an estimate and I would not expect that a comic from the 60s has much better than a 5% survival rate. Superman sold 800,000 copies in that time which would mean 8,000 copies of issues are still around (40,000 with the 5% figure).

A comic shop blogger estimated that 90% of comics bought from comic book shops still exist because the collectors who bought them handled them with care and saved them as a collectible. That seems a little high to me. Most people are aware that comics are collectibles and comics stored in a comic bag would make even an uninitiated person feel that it's not something to be casually thrown away. A lot, particularly first issues, have been bought by speculators. I'd comfortably believe that at least around 80% of modern direct sales comics have survived since the 80s. Of course, no paper comic has the print runs and sales that occurred in the 60s.

With the small sales figures of modern comics, it's possible that a modern title has a greater rarity than old comics from the 60s. Just eyeballing ComicChron sales figures for Jan 2021, it seems that the average sales figure for a Marvel comic is about 15,000 (mind you, I'm too lazy to add these all up to get a real average). Using a 20% loss figure, that would leave 13,000 still around. The condition would be better in a modern comic than a 60s comic not handled with the care of a modern collectible comic.

I'm curious if anybody has better figures.

[The Australian Panther]

I was thinking about how ridiculous first issue back prices are for modern comics considering that first issues now sell two or more times copies than subsequent issues. Second or later issues are far more rare than first issues. Before the advent of comic book shops and direct sales, first issues were rarer. It got me wondering how much more rare.

If you just want to read them, rather than collect paper originals, they are no longer rare at all, since pretty much everything is available on the internet, if you you know where and how to look.
Current issues are published simultaneously on the net, so paper issues are hardly likely to reach very high prices.
Also most publishers now publish 'Archive editions' of pretty much all titles. The early FF issues for example, have been republished at least 4 times. 
As I understand it, the print runs of current comics are negligible in comparison to the copies printed in the 60's and 70's.
Also comics now are almost exclusively sold only in Specialty comic shops and not on open newsagents or newsstands - which also is a factor contracting print runs.
Also, a factor most would not be aware of is that distribution and return of comics,books and magazines is not necessarily an honest business.
When books have been returned they are marked. For example with a black texta line on the bottom of the book. Comics are often clipped, so there is a hole through them or a corner missing, for the same reason.
But that is not the end of them, they are often bought up and shipped in containers overseas, where they are resold in remainder shops.
In Australia for example, in the early 2000's a glut of VALIANT COMICS  turned up in bargain shops. In mint condition.
The biggest issue though, is that even today the majority don't see comics as valuable and trash them or destroy them.
Last but not least, the current young generation does less reading than previous generations.
Most don't want to read books and many can't anyway. I speak as a teacher and an ex-bookseller.
They will watch videos and movies more than the written word. So the magazine industry is also dying.
As are newspapers. It's inevitable I think. Why would you buy a book or magazine or printed comic when you can get it all on the internet? Also one more factor. Have you looked at the cost of paper lately?
I don't think comics will die as a genre, but the methods of publishing and distributing will certainly change.
Also, I believe the BIG TWO are  slowly - but not that slowly - destroying themselves.
Chinese curse: 'May you live in interesting times.'